Sedalia, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

733
FXUS63 KEAX 260341
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1041 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The flash flooding potential continues overnight into Saturday
  Morning, mainly for areas along and north of the Missouri
  River due to repeated thudnerstorms moving over the same
  areas.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible again
  Saturday afternoon from west-central MO toward northeast MO.

- Hot and humid conditions return this weekend and persist
  through the middle of the next week.

- Wetter conditions are expected to return late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Current forecast is still on track today and tonight and into
Saturday morning with little modifications. The flash flood
potential still exists for areas along and north of the Missouri
River until Saturday morning as storms develop over eastern KS
and move northeast into northern MO. The weak shortwave trough
over central KS will slowly move ENE today and overnight,
increasing instability to coincide with afternoon heating and
amazing boundary layer moisture. Moderate to high rainfall rates
of around an inch an hour will just add to saturated soils and
increase runoff into local streams and rivers. Again, models are
indicating that these storms sill continue past midnight across
northern MO.

The biggest change is the addition of a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms from east-central KS into west-central MO
(increasing from marginal). Besides the previously mentioned
heavy rain from the storms, the dynamics of the storms are
expected to produce strong wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph. In
addition, SPC has highlighted east-central KS to west-central MO
with a 5 percent potential of a tornado due to moderate mid-
level southwest flow (bulk shear 30-35 kts) overriding weak
southeasterly flow. The result is effective helicity of 100+
m2/s2. The best time of this severe threat is from 400 pm
through 1000 pm, and from the southwest to the northeast. Some
of the hires models are indicating lingering strong storms
initiating around KC around 1000pm then moving to norther-
central MO near midnight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will develop again from northeast MO toward KC Saturday
afternoon as a lingering boundary stretches across the state.

Another thing to consider for Sunday through Tuesday is the
potential for a heat advisory across central MO due to max temps
in the mid 90s and continued high humidities.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 711 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

Ceilings will be mostly VFR through the night with showers and
thunderstorms moving through the area. A few of these showers
have lowered visibilities down to below 5 SM at times and may
bring ceilings down briefly to MVFR as well. Main threats with
these storms will be heavy rainfall, lightning, and wind gusts
up to 60 mph. Expect these storms to end around 12z. Winds will
be variable through the night and will turn out of the southwest
by Saturday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>032-037>039.
KS...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McDonald
AVIATION...AS